Can Iran secretly build a nuclear bomb without being caught by Israel?
Desk Report : 28 June 2025
David lee
On an autumn day four years ago, Iran's leading nuclear scientist was driving to his country residence with his wife when a nearby pick-up truck, equipped with a remote-controlled machine gun, fired a barrage of bullets as he slowed for a speed bump, instantly killing him, according to Iranian officials.
The killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was the mastermind behind a dormant nuclear weapons initiative known as Project Amad, starkly revealed the extent to which Israel had infiltrated Iran. This vulnerability has been further exposed in recent weeks, as Israeli airstrikes have resulted in the deaths of several other scientists believed to be part of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s political leaders are currently facing a tough choice. Following heavy U.S. bombings of their nuclear facilities and air defenses, they can either reach a painful agreement with Washington and cease their uranium enrichment efforts or reinstate the covert weapons program that Fakhrizadeh had directed.
Unlike some nations that have successfully developed nuclear arms in secrecy, Iran cannot assume its efforts will remain unnoticed. Israel has consistently shown it can bypass Iran’s security measures, reveal its hidden nuclear activities, and target high-ranking military personnel, according to former intelligence officials and experts.
"Iran's main obstacle in pursuing a covert route will be staying under the radar from U.S. and Israeli surveillance," noted Eric Brewer, a former intelligence officer who is now with the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit focused on global security.
"The critical challenge is that both nations, especially Israel, have proven capabilities to infiltrate Iran's nuclear program," he continued. "Moreover, Israel has displayed the ability to employ military force to dismantle it."
The Israeli air force has effectively incapacitated Iran’s air defense systems. Currently, Iran is unable to shield any locations within its borders—particularly suspected nuclear facilities—from potential airstrikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to former intelligence officials.
“Israel possesses complete intelligence superiority over Iran,” stated Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“If they identify any emerging threat, they will neutralize it. . . This could involve airstrikes. It could also mean covert operations.”
Iran previously attempted to develop an atomic bomb under a shroud of secrecy. Over twenty years ago, it had a clandestine nuclear weapons initiative, according to Western intelligence sources.
However, its efforts were unveiled in December 2002 when satellite imagery revealed an enrichment facility located in Natanz and a heavy water reactor situated approximately 200 miles away in Arak.
Iran has consistently claimed it never operated a weapons program. Documents that were appropriated in 2018 by Israel’s Mossad, which the U.S. acknowledges as credible, contained comprehensive plans to construct five nuclear arms.
As per U.S. intelligence agencies, Iran terminated its nuclear weapons program in 2003. By that time, the confidentiality surrounding the initiative had been compromised, and Iran had cause for concern following the U.S. invasion of Iraq next door.
Since then, Iran has asserted it operates a civilian nuclear program. Iran’s uranium enrichment and additional nuclear activities provide Tehran with the capability to potentially pursue a weapon should it make that decision—something arms control specialists refer to as a “threshold” nuclear capability.
If the government opts to accelerate its pursuit of a nuclear bomb, it will be calculating that possessing nuclear weapons will deter any enemy from attempting to launch an attack or overthrow its leadership. This strategy resembles that of other nations which have successfully carried out covert bomb endeavors, such as North Korea, Pakistan, India, and Israel.
The Israeli administration concealed its nuclear weapons initiative from the United States for many years.
In the 1950s, engineers from France assisted Israel in constructing a nuclear reactor and a clandestine reprocessing facility to extract plutonium from spent fuel. To this day, Israel’s government neither confirms nor denies the existence of its nuclear stockpile, asserting that it will refrain from being the first to "introduce" nuclear arms to the Middle East.
India began its nuclear program in the 1950s, receiving nuclear reactors and fuel from the United States and Canada for what was claimed to be peaceful purposes. India accepted safeguards intended to ensure that the reactors and fuel would not be used for armament.
However, in the 1960s, India secretly reprocessed spent fuel into plutonium, accumulating fissile material for a nuclear weapon. By 1974, India conducted its inaugural nuclear test, known as Smiling Buddha.
Pakistan developed its nuclear bomb with assistance from nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan, a metallurgist who acquired blueprints and other critical information on advanced centrifuges while employed at a nuclear engineering firm in Amsterdam. Khan later became associated with the distribution of nuclear weapons technology to countries like Iran and North Korea, among others.
Khan’s support during the 1990s was essential for North Korea’s nuclear development. The regime in Pyongyang also procured technology and hardware internationally through cover companies or illegal markets, as reported by U.N. monitors.
It was the United States that assisted Iran in initiating its nuclear program prior to the 1979 revolution that ended the monarchy. During the Shah's reign, the U.S. provided nuclear technology, fuel, training, and equipment to Iran in the 1960s under the "Atoms for Peace Program," which included a research reactor.
Currently, Iran likely no longer needs to rely on external partners for technical expertise, according to experts. Nevertheless, the regime faces a challenging task in rebuilding what remains of its nuclear program.
Every known nuclear facility in Iran was struck during Israel’s air campaign earlier this month. Additionally, the U.S. conducted an assault on three enrichment locations last week, deploying 14 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bombs and several Tomahawk missiles. According to the CIA, significant facilities were obliterated, and the nuclear initiative was "severely damaged" as a result of these strikes.
In spite of the unprecedented destruction, which is still being evaluated, some arms control experts suggest that Iran might still possess the technical capabilities to restart a weapons program – including enriched uranium, centrifuges, and access to tunnels or additional underground facilities.
Iran’s complete stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains unaccounted for, and there is an unspecified number of centrifuges stored that were not found at the bombed sites, as reported by NBC News.
However, Iran’s most substantial technical challenge could be the production of uranium metal. Iran had only one known site capable of converting uranium into solid metallic form, which was destroyed in Israeli airstrikes in Isfahan.
Without such a facility, Iran would be unable to create a nuclear weapon, and it remains uncertain whether the regime has a secret uranium metal production facility located elsewhere.
Setting aside the technical challenges, the choice to develop a nuclear bomb will ultimately be driven by political factors, rather than technology or logistics, according to Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
"It really is a political decision rather than a technical one," Lewis noted. "They still retain a significant amount of capability."
After enduring a relentless aerial assault that showcased Israel’s air dominance, Iran may perceive nuclear weapons as the sole means for self-defense and for the preservation of the regime’s existence, according to Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank and a professor at the University of Illinois.
“Iran has every incentive now, given the recent events, to declare that they need a bomb, and that they will be treated differently if they possess one,” Weinbaum remarked.
Officials within Iran’s regime have long deliberated on whether to pursue nuclear weapons, and their policy over the last twenty years appeared to reach a compromise, allowing Tehran the option to go nuclear if necessary. The dilemma for Iranian authorities is whether nuclear weapons would safeguard the regime’s longevity or jeopardize its hold on power, according to regional analysts.
Above Iran’s decision looms the threat of Israeli intelligence and military power, which could expose Tehran if it attempts to hastily produce a bomb.
“It will be intriguing to see if the regime becomes more resolute and serious about it, or whether their operational security remains, as it often has, quite poor,” Lewis commented. “They have consistently been rather reckless.”
President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to engage in discussions regarding a potential agreement with Iran in the coming days aimed at halting its uranium enrichment in exchange for relief from sanctions.
At the same time, intelligence agencies from both America and Israel will be intensely concentrating on uncovering Iran's covert activities, according to Polymeropoulos.
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